Accuracy of advanced endoscopy and fecal calprotectin for prediction of relapse in ulcerative colitis: a prospective study

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of advanced endoscopy for prediction of relapse in ulcerative colitis, in comparison with serum and fecal biomarkers. Patients with ulcerative colitis with sustained clinical remission defined as absence of blood in stool for a minimum of 3 months and Mayo endoscopic subscore of 0 were included. High-resolution rectosigmoidoscopy was performed at baseline and at the end of study (week 52 or relapse), assessing mucosal pit pattern by chromoendoscopy and narrow band imaging as well as vascular pattern by narrow band imaging. Histology was evaluated at baseline and at the end of the study. Follow-up for 1 year or until relapse with clinical evaluations and serum and fecal biomarkers every 3 months was established. Relapse was defined as presence of blood in stool and a Mayo endoscopic subscore ≥1 with histologic confirmation. Seventeen out of 64 patients (27%) relapsed during the follow-up period. Baseline clinical characteristics in patients who relapsed and those who did not were similar. Neither pit or vascular pattern nor histology was significantly different between relapsers and nonrelapsers. Among serum biomarkers, high platelet count was significantly associated with higher relapse rates. Fecal calprotectin was predictor of relapse within 3- and 12-month period with high specificity but low sensitivity. Advanced endoscopy and histology do not predict relapse over 1-year period in patients with ulcerative colitis. Fecal calprotectin can predict relapse in 3- and 12-month period with low accuracy.