SEA LEVEL FORECASTS AND EARLY-WARNING APPLICATION: Expanding Cooperation in the South Pacific

Because of the need for information related to the variability and predictability of sea level on season-to-longer time scales, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center runs the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based canonical correlation analysis (CCA) statistical model to generate sea level forecasts for the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region with lead times of 3–6 months in advance. However, in order to meet the increasing demand for longer lead-time (e.g., 6–12 months) forecasts, the PEAC Center, as part of the advances in operational sea level forecasts, recently incorporated both SST and zonal wind components of trade winds (U) for modulating sea level variability on longer time scales. The combined SST and U-based forecasts are found to be more skillful on longer time scales. This improvement has enabled the capability of our clients in the USAPI region to develop a more efficient long-term response plan for hazard management. In a recent “Regional Integrated Water Level Service” meeting, it was revealed that the development and distribution of “seasonal water level outlooks” in the Pacific basin region is an area of mutual interest. We therefore synthesize the current operational forecasting, warning, and response activities of the PEAC Center and discuss the manner in which our experience in the USAPI region can contribute to the development of adaptation strategies for longer time-scale climate variability and change for the non-USAPI region in the south Pacific.