Evaluation of stormwater micropollutant source control and end-of-pipe control strategies using an uncertainty-calibrated integrated dynamic simulation model

The estimation of micropollutant (MP) fluxes in stormwater systems is a fundamental prerequisite when preparing strategies to reduce stormwater MP discharges to natural waters. Dynamic integrated models can be important tools in this step, as they can be used to integrate the limited data provided by monitoring campaigns and to evaluate the performance of different strategies based on model simulation results. This study presents an example where six different control strategies, including both source-control and end-of-pipe treatment, were compared. The comparison focused on fluxes of heavy metals (copper, zinc) and organic compounds (fluoranthene). MP fluxes were estimated by using an integrated dynamic model, in combination with stormwater quality measurements. MP sources were identified by using GIS land usage data, runoff quality was simulated by using a conceptual accumulation/washoff model, and a stormwater retention pond was simulated by using a dynamic treatment model based on MP inherent properties. Uncertainty in the results was estimated with a pseudo-Bayesian method. Despite the great uncertainty in the MP fluxes estimated by the runoff quality model, it was possible to compare the six scenarios in terms of discharged MP fluxes, compliance with water quality criteria, and sediment accumulation. Source-control strategies obtained better results in terms of reduction of MP emissions, but all the simulated strategies failed in fulfilling the criteria based on emission limit values. The results presented in this study shows how the efficiency of MP pollution control strategies can be quantified by combining advanced modeling tools (integrated stormwater quality model, uncertainty calibration). •Fluxes of stormwater micropollutants were estimated with a dynamic integrated model.•Effect of source-control and end-of-pipe pollution control strategies were modeled.•Fluxes of copper, zinc and fluoranthene were calculated over a 10-year period.•Scenario comparisons covered loads, sediment accumulation and regulatory compliance.•Uncertainty analysis increased the robustness of the scenario analyses. [Display omitted]