The effect of climate change on the population fluctuation of the Siberian crane in Poyang Lake

Siberian crane (Grits leucogeranus) is a critically endangered species and has been a bird species under second class protection. In recent years, almost the entire population winters at or very near Poyang Lake, China. Based on the annual maximum population size of Siberian crane wintering in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve during 1983 and 2011, we tested the correlation between population size and the climate variables of its wintering and breeding areas. The climate variables included monthly average air temperature, monthly average maximum air temperature, monthly average minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation. Only considering the climate factor, the model predicted that the population size of Siberian crane will show an obvious decrease in 2016.