Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NOx, NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM10) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH4, N2O and CO2), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. •More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions.•Emissions of CO, NOx and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards.•Emissions of PM10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario.•Emissions of PM10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020.•Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies.