Wind power merit-order and feed-in-tariffs effect: A variability analysis of the Spanish electricity market

•M5P algorithm-based model determines influence of wind power on Spanish spot market.•Assessment of the wind power influence for different levels of wind resource.•Cost-benefit analysis is developed, accounting feed-in-tariffs and merit order effect.•The worst and best levels of wind power production for the system are determined. The incipient large-scale energy-storage technologies are not sufficiently developed yet, which means that the wind power production depends on the wind speed at every moment. This, along with the fact that the wind resource is not constant over time, makes wind power production quite variable. Therefore, an artificial intelligence-based technique (M5P algorithm) is applied to empirical hourly data to determine the influence of wind power technology on the spot market for different levels of wind resource in 2012. It concludes that wind power depressed the spot prices between 7.42 and 10.94€/MWh for a wind power production of 90% and 110% of the real one, respectively. Furthermore, taking into account the important presence of wind power in the Spanish generation mix, the above range has been extended up to 0% in order to determine the worst and best level of wind power production for the Spanish electrical system (from an economical point of view). To do so, both feed-in-tariffs and wind power impact on spot market (merit order effect) have been accounted in accordance with the different levels of wind power production. Since empirical data from 2012 have been used to conduct the research, the results presented in this paper may provide policy makers with a worst and best-case scenario to discuss about the convenience of the last cutting expenses over wind power technology in Spain.