Mass balance-based regression modeling of PAHs accumulation in urban soils, role of urban development

We investigated the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contents in 68 soils samples collected at housing developments that represent different length of development periods across Beijing. Based on the data, we derived a mass balanced mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of PAH accumulations in urban soils as affected by the urban developments. The key parameters were estimated by fitting the modified mass balance model to the data of PAH concentrations vs. building age of the sampling green area. The total PAH concentrations would increase from the baseline of 267 ng g−1 to 3631 ng g−1 during the period of 1978–2048. It showed that the dynamic changes in the rates of accumulations of light and heavy PAH species were related to the shifting of sources of fuels, combustion efficiencies, and amounts of energy consumed during the course of development. [Display omitted] •Introduced a mass balance model for soil PAHs accumulation with urbanization.•Reconstructed the historical data of PAH accumulation in soil of Beijing, China.•The soil PAH concentrations would be doubled in the following 40 years.•The composition of PAH emissions were shifting to light PAH species. Introduced a regression modeling approach to predict the changes of PAH concentrations in urban soil.