A Swarm Optimization Based Method for Urban Growth Modelling

Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Urban planners must be able to allocate urban land area to different applications with a special focus on the role and function of the city, its economy, and the ability to simulate the effect of user interaction with each other. Continuing migration of rural population to cities and population increases has caused many problems of today's cities including the expansion of urban areas, lack of infrastructure and urban services as well as environmental pollution. Local governments that implement urban growth boundaries need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban activities. Urban growth is a complex process that encounters a number of sophisticated parameters that interact to produce the urban growth pattern. Urban growth modelling aims to understand the dynamic processes. Therefore, interpretability of models is becoming increasingly important. Different approaches have been applied in spatial modelling. In this study, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has been used for modelling of urban growth in Qazvin city area (Iran) during 2005 to 2011. Landsat imageries, taken in 2005 and 2011 have been used in the study. Main parameters in this study are distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, slope, accessibility, land price and number of urban cell in a 3*3 neighbourhood. Figure of Merit and Kappa statistics have been used for estimating accuracy of the proposed model.Original Abstract: Zemes sklypu isnaudojimas yra pagrindine problema ir issukis, su kuriuo susiduria kiekvienas miestu ir kaimu teritoriju planuotojas. Miestu planu rengejai turi gebeti urbanistines teritorijas paskirstyti naudoti pagal paskirti, ypatinga demesi skirti miesto savitoms savybems, jo funkcionalumui, atkreipti demesi j miesto ekonominj lygi, numatyti ir atkurti saveikos rysius tarp vartotoju. Besitesianti migracija i miestus bei populiacijos augimas sukele daug problemu siandieniniams miestams, iskaitant miesto teritoriju pletimasi, infrastrukturos bei miesto paslaugu prieinamumo trukuma ir aplinkosauginc tarsa. Vietos valdzios institucijos, nustatancios miestu augimo ribas, turi ivertinti miesto pletrai reikalinga zemes teritorijos dydi, numatyti nauju bustu, verslo pletros, poilsio zonu ir kitu miestui budingu bei reikalingu teritoriju poreikio augima, neperziangiant nustatytu nauju miesto ribu