The term structure of implied dividend yields and expected returns

This paper proposes a new dividend-based S&P 500 Index return predictor, the implied dividend yield term structure (IDYTS). We show that the IDYTS is a “cleaner” predictor than its conventional counterpart, the dividend price ratio (DP), in that the expected return is a linear combination of the level and slope of the term structure. Exploiting non-arbitrage relationships and the forward-looking nature of the options market, we estimate the IDYTS and investigate its index return predictability. The IDYTS outperforms the DP in predictive regressions, and the optimal IDYTS portfolio, constructed by using the IDYTS in a predictive regression, stochastically dominates and yields a higher Sharpe ratio than the DP portfolio. •We propose a return predictor: the implied dividend yield term structure (IDYTS).•The IDYTS is constructed from index options data using put–call parity.•Expected returns can be characterized by a linear function of the IDYTS.•The IDYTS outperforms the dividend price ratio (DP) in predictive regressions.•The IDYTS outperforms the DP in out-of-sample portfolio tests.