Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model

► A new methodology for improving energy system analysis models was proposed. ► The MARKAL model was integrated with the diffusion model. ► The new methodology was applied to green car technology. ► The ripple effect of green car technology on the energy system can be analyzed. By 2020, Korea has set itself the challenging target of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, more than the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, as the implementation goal required to achieve the new national development paradigm of green growth. To achieve such a target, it is necessary to diffuse innovative technologies with the capacity to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, the ripple effect of diffusing innovative technologies on the energy and environment must be quantitatively analyzed using an energy system analysis model such as the MARKAL (Market Allocation) model. However, energy system analysis models based on an optimization methodology have certain limitations in that a technology with superior cost competitiveness dominates the whole market and non-cost factors cannot be considered. Therefore, this study proposes a new methodology for overcoming problems associated with the use of MARKAL models, by interfacing with a forecasting model based on the discrete-choice model. The new methodology was applied to green car technology to verify its usefulness and to study the ripple effects of green car technology on greenhouse gas reduction. The results of this study can be used as a reference when establishing a strategy for effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, and could be of assistance to future studies using the energy system analysis model.