Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models

In this study, we examined the responses of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to natural (solar variability and volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) forcings simulated in the 17 latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 models with 105 realizations. The observed weakening trend of low‐level EASM circulation during 1958–2001 is partly reproduced under all‐forcing runs. A comparison of separate forcing experiments reveals that the aerosol forcing plays a primary role in driving the weakened low‐level monsoon circulation. The preferential cooling over continental East Asia caused by aerosol affects the monsoon circulation through reducing the land‐sea thermal contrast and results in higher sea level pressure over northern China. In the upper level, both natural forcing and aerosol forcing contribute to the observed southward shift of East Asian subtropical jet through changing the meridional temperature gradient. Key Points The observed weakening of EASM is reproduced in CMIP5 models The aerosol weakens the monsoon by reducing the land‐sea thermal contrast The aerosol plays a primary role in driving models' monsoon weakening