Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surges around the Changjiang Estuary

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge around the Changjiang Estuary and the Hangzhou Bay are investigated using a shallow-water circulation model ADCIRC coupled with a spectral wave model SWAN. The validated model is applied to two typical typhoons under three scenarios: 1.0 m SLR, 0.483 m SLR and present sea-level condition. In consideration of interactions of tide, waves and surge, the impact exerted by SLR on tide and waves are also discussed. The migration of the amphidromes generated by SLR causes the cophase lines to defect relatively counterclockwise near the Changjiang Estuary. Comparing the maximum wave height between each scenario, the wave height increase is found to be significant in shallow areas due to the increase in water depth. The breaking locations of the wave shift shoreward. The general patterns in wave height change are approximately determined by the typhoon path and topography. Taking the value of SLR into account, the peak of elevation near shore could experience a significant increase in the future.