Aerodynamic uncertainty propagation in bridge flutter analysis

[Display omitted] •Uncertainty propagation from flutter derivatives to critical wind speed is studied.•Bridge collapse due to flutter is framed in a risk analysis approach.•The statistical properties of experimental flutter derivatives are investigated.•A method of calculation of the probability distribution of the flutter critical wind speed is proposed.•Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to solve the problem in several case studies. This paper presents a method to approach flutter instability in a probabilistic way and to calculate the critical wind speed, starting from the probability distribution of the flutter derivatives. Uncertainty propagation is studied and the results can be used for risk-assessment purposes. The statistical properties of experimental flutter derivatives were investigated with ad hoc wind tunnel tests performed on a bridge deck model of common geometry. The probability distribution of the flutter critical wind speed can be analytically calculated if a simplified approach to flutter is followed, while Monte Carlo methods have to be utilized in the general case. Several application examples are presented and both well-behaving and particularly critical cases of uncertainty propagation are discussed. Finally, the effect of partial correlation between flutter derivatives is studied and its non-negligible role in the definition of the probability distribution of the flutter wind speed is underscored.