Determinants of Declining Wage Mobility in the New Economy

This study draws from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey to compare patterns of wage mobility among the late boomer and millennial cohorts of young men. Estimating group-based trajectory models, the authors find that fewer men enjoyed rapid wage growth and more men fell into the steady and stagnant wage-trajectory groups. Furthermore, employment patterns in the new economy (e.g., changing employers, more part-time employment, and employment in low-end service occupations) increasingly determine the mobility rates of millennials compared with boomers and are stronger predictors of mobility chances in the millennial cohort than are family background and cognitive skills.