Alternative projections of decline of the African elephant

The results of a simulation model used to extrapolate the trend in African elephant populations is shown to be very sensitive to the criteria used to calibrate the model. Furthermore, the implication that elephant populations will become extinct in the near future is shown to be an inevitable consequence of the assumption that the level of effort used to hunt elephants increases exponentially. An alternative model, that links the level of effort to the theory of open-access exploitation of resources, results in elephant numbers declining significantly, but not to extinction. The divergence in these results suggests that it is vital to have a good understanding of the economic forces underlying the exploitation of elephants when making such projections.