Vote Recall: A Panel Study on the Mechanisms That Explain Vote Recall Inconsistency
Voters' recall of past behavior is known to be inaccurate. Yet, owing to data limitations, the precise mechanisms behind recall inconsistency have not yet been pulled apart empirically. We analyze the Dutch 1VOP panel data set (29,955 respondents, 53 waves) to simultaneously test four explanati...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of public opinion research 2014-03, Vol.26 (1), p.18-40 |
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| container_title | International journal of public opinion research |
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| creator | van Elsas, Erika J Lubbe, Rozemarijn van der Meer, Tom WG van der Brug, Wouter |
| description | Voters' recall of past behavior is known to be inaccurate. Yet, owing to data limitations, the precise mechanisms behind recall inconsistency have not yet been pulled apart empirically. We analyze the Dutch 1VOP panel data set (29,955 respondents, 53 waves) to simultaneously test four explanations of recall inconsistency. We conclude that vote recall is explained by forgetfulness, nonattitudes, and cognitive bias, but find no evidence for measurement bias. Recall consistency is affected by current party preference and by volatility in party preferences. Both effects become stronger with longer time intervals between recalls. We discuss the implications for (cross-national) survey research methodology and for substantive research on electoral volatility and offer tentative solutions against the resulting validity, reliability, and equivalence issues. Adapted from the source document. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1093/ijpor/edt031 |
| format | Article |
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Yet, owing to data limitations, the precise mechanisms behind recall inconsistency have not yet been pulled apart empirically. We analyze the Dutch 1VOP panel data set (29,955 respondents, 53 waves) to simultaneously test four explanations of recall inconsistency. We conclude that vote recall is explained by forgetfulness, nonattitudes, and cognitive bias, but find no evidence for measurement bias. Recall consistency is affected by current party preference and by volatility in party preferences. Both effects become stronger with longer time intervals between recalls. We discuss the implications for (cross-national) survey research methodology and for substantive research on electoral volatility and offer tentative solutions against the resulting validity, reliability, and equivalence issues. 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| ispartof | International journal of public opinion research, 2014-03, Vol.26 (1), p.18-40 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Sociological Abstracts; EBSCOhost Political Science Complete; Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current) |
| subjects | Bias Cognition Data analysis Electoral College Netherlands Panel data Recall Reliability Research Methodology Research methods Respondents Surveys Volatility Voters Voting |
| title | Vote Recall: A Panel Study on the Mechanisms That Explain Vote Recall Inconsistency |
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