Estimating forest vulnerability to the next spruce budworm outbreak: will past silvicultural efforts pay dividends?

Silvicultural treatments recommended to reduce damage by spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) include reducing balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) abundance and age and increasing spruce (Picea spp.) and hardwood content. To evaluate the effect of these measures on forest timber supply, we assessed stand characteristics, disturbance history, and timber supply for an intensively managed eastern Quebec forest from 1985 to 2004, encompassing a major SBW outbreak. During this time, mean stand age declined from 55 to 51 years, and proportions of areas in balsam fir stands declined (42% to 27%), spruce–fir stabilized (12% to 11%), and mixedwoods increased (32% to 52%). We estimated forest vulnerability using softwood volume reductions following simulated outbreak scenarios of different severity (low, moderate, and high) and different effects of hardwood content in reducing spruce–fir defoliation. Volume reductions for outbreaks simulated to begin in either 1985 or 2004 were similar, ranging from 15%–46% (no hardwood effect in reducing defoliation) to 13%–39% (given a maximum hardwood content effect) for light and severe outbreaks, respectively. Considering the net detrimental effect of increased hardwood content on softwood timber supply, we question the dividends of promoting hardwoods and recommend increasing the combined use of plantations and weeding treatments to increase spruce content.