A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk in the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin: An integrated approach

•Water scarcity risk considers social–ecological factors including supply and demand.•Climate change impact is expected to be strong in the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin.•To deal with future changes, this study provides dynamic behaviour of the system.•Stakeholders provide their preferences for the aggregation of risk indicators.•Water scarcity risk is expected to increase and to fluctuate as a function of hazard. Many international river basins are likely to experience increasing water scarcity over the coming decades. This water scarcity is not rooted only in the limitation of resources, i.e. the shortage in the availability of freshwater relative to water demand, but also on social factors (e.g. flawed water planning and management approaches, institutional incapability to provide water services, unsustainable economic policies). Therefore, the assessment of water scarcity risks is not limited to the assessment of physical water supply and demand, but it requires also consideration of several socio-economic factors. In this study, we provide a comprehensive dynamic assessment of water scarcity risks for the Lower Brahmaputra river basin, a region where the hydrological impact of climate change is expected to be particularly strong and population pressure is high. The basin area of Brahmaputra River lies among four different countries: China, India, Bangladesh and Bhutan. For water scarcity assessment, we propose a novel integration of different approaches: (i) the assessment of water scarcity risk, considering complex social-ecological system; (ii) the analysis of dynamic behaviour of the system; (iii) exploration of participatory approach in which limited number of stakeholders identify the most relevant issues with reference to water scarcity risks and provide their preferences for the aggregation of risk assessment indicators. Results show that water scarcity risk is expected to slightly increase and to fluctuate remarkably as a function of the hazard signal. Social indicators show trends that can at least partially compensate the increasing trend of the drought index. The results of this study are intended to be used for contributing to planned adaptation of water resources systems, in Lower Brahmaputra River Basin.