Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. •Scenarios for global Hg-emissions through 2050 are developed within the GAINS model.•Air pollution policies are insufficient to stabilize future global mercury emissions.•Co-benefits for Hg from parallel control of air quality and GHGs are substantial.•Maximum feasible reduction strategy brings future Hg emissions below today's levels.•Elemental gaseous mercury dominates other Hg-forms across scenarios and time periods.