Resilience of branching and massive corals to wave loading under sea level rise – A coupled computational fluid dynamics-structural analysis

•Failure stresses in branching coral are determined through mechanical testing.•A computational fluid dynamics and structural analysis model is developed.•The model is used to estimate hydrodynamic conditions leading to structural failure.•The impact of sea level rise or loss of structural strength is investigated.•Exposure to damaging wave loads increases for branching coral. Measurements of coral structural strength are coupled with a fluid dynamics-structural analysis to investigate the resilience of coral to wave loading under sea level rise and a typical Great Barrier Reef lagoon wave climate. The measured structural properties were used to determine the wave conditions and flow velocities that lead to structural failure. Hydrodynamic modelling was subsequently used to investigate the type of the bathymetry where coral is most vulnerable to breakage under cyclonic wave conditions, and how sea level rise (SLR) changes this vulnerability. Massive corals are determined not to be vulnerable to wave induced structural damage, whereas branching corals are susceptible at wave induced orbital velocities exceeding 0.5m/s. Model results from a large suite of idealised bathymetry suggest that SLR of 1m or a loss of skeleton strength of order 25% significantly increases the area of reef flat where branching corals are exposed to damaging wave induced flows.