A predictive model of benthic community to sediment in tidal flat of river mouth

A simple model forecasting benthic community structure in estuarine tidal flats based on physical characteristics of sediment was proposed in this study. Monitoring data of the investigations conducted by Tokushima Prefecture in the Yoshino River was used to develop the present simple model. Physical characteristics of sediment such as particle size and difference in elevation were selected as the major factors forecasting benthic community structure. Relationships between physical characteristics of sediment and benthic community structure from the data for 5 years seemed to be enough for developing the simple model. Silt-clay content of sediment and difference in elevation could be classified into 5 to 6 groups in the present simple model. Those groups were also characterized by several specific benthic species. It meant that benthic community corresponded to sediment characteristics in the tidal flat. The integrated prediction accuracy of the model was 71 % at the maximum. It needed to compile for the monitoring data to develop the simple model at least 2 years judged from prediction accuracy.