Foraging and predation risk for larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) in Lake Superior: A modelling synthesis of empirical survey data

•We modelled predation risk and growth of cisco larvae in Lake Superior.•Factors influencing the survival of cisco larvae appeared to vary across Lake Superior.•In situ zooplankton densities may restrict growth of cisco larvae.•Cisco recruitment may be dampened by incidental predation by rainbow smelt. The relative importance of predation and food availability as contributors to larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) mortality in Lake Superior were investigated using a visual foraging model to evaluate potential predation pressure by rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and a bioenergetic model to evaluate potential starvation risk. The models were informed by observations of rainbow smelt, larval cisco, and zooplankton abundance at three Lake Superior locations during the period of spring larval cisco emergence and surface-oriented foraging. Predation risk was highest at Black Bay, ON, where average rainbow smelt densities in the uppermost 10 m of the water column were >1000ha−1. Turbid conditions at the Twin Ports, WI-MN, affected larval cisco predation risk because rainbow smelt remained suspended in the upper water column during daylight, placing them alongside larval cisco during both day and night hours. Predation risk was low at Cornucopia, WI, owing to low smelt densities (