Comparative analysis of expected changes of risk under favorable and unfavorable effects of changing climate on productivity potential

The given results of a methodological investigation show that, under favorable climate change accompanied by an increase in the average productivity potential of agroecosystems, the risks of poor crop years can often decrease to a considerably greater degree than increase in comparable situations under unfavorable climate change. This conclusion is based on an analysis of a probabilistic model interpreting yield as a random variable whose distribution depends on climate characteristics.