Evaluating the combined threat of climate change and biological invasions on endangered species

► Ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDM) are used to anticipate joint changes in native and invasive species distribution. ► SDM confirm that invasive species like Dreissena polymorpha may benefit from climate changes (15-20% expansion). ► Native Pseudanodonta complanata may face a notable contraction (14-36%), its overlap with the invader increasing by 25%. ► In contrast, both the native and invasive crayfishes showed a contraction in their potential range. ► SDM allowed identifying areas of shared bioclimatic suitability as well as potential refugia for native species conservation. Climate change and invasive species are two major biodiversity threats expected to provoke extinctions of many species in the future. This study evaluates the joint threat posed by climate change and two invasive species: the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) and the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus), on the distribution of two endangered freshwater species: the depressed river mussel (Pseudanodonta complanata) and the white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes), at the scale of Europe. We expected the native species to experience a gradual contraction over time in their geographic range size, while the invasive species would maintain or increase their spread; therefore, their overlap would increase, further threatening the conservation of the native species. To test these three hypotheses, ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were calibrated with current distributions and projected onto present and 2050 future climatic scenarios. In agreement with our expectations, the 2050 scenarios suggested D. polymorpha may strongly benefit from climate changes (increase of 15–20% in range size), while the depressed river mussel would experience a considerable loss (14–36%), the overlap between both mussels increasing up to 24%. Although both crayfishes were predicted to be negatively affected by climate changes, the contraction was more severe for the invasive P. leniusculus (up to 32% decrease in range size). Moreover, the overlap between both crayfishes decreased by 13–16%, which may reduce the pressure upon the native A. pallipes. This study illustrates how SDMs can assist in management of endangered species over large spatial and temporal scales by identifying current and future areas of shared bioclimatic suitability and potential refugia.