Real-time prediction of ground motion by Kirchhoff-Fresnel boundary integral equation method: Extended front detection method for Earthquake Early Warning

A method of real‐time prediction of ground motion is proposed for application for the Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). In many methods of the present EEW systems, hypocenter and magnitude are determined quickly, after which ground motions are predicted. Although these methods can predict the strength of ground motions by using a few parameters (e.g., hypocenter, magnitude, and site factors), error in the parameters leads directly to error in the prediction, and it is not easy to take the effects of rupture directivity and source extent into account. During the aftershock activity of the 2011Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0), multiple events occurred simultaneously, which made it difficult to accurately determine the hypocenters and magnitudes, and led to some false alarms. To address these problems, a new method is proposed that applies the Kirchhoff‐Fresnel boundary integral equation. Ground motion is predicted from real‐time ground motion observation at front stations in the direction of incoming seismic waves. The real‐time monitoring of wavefield and propagation direction are important for this method, but a hypocenter and magnitude are not required. It is possible to predict ground motion without a hypocenter and magnitude, and the precision of the prediction is not affected by error in the source parameters. The effects of rupture directivity, source extent, and simultaneous multiple events are substantially included in this method. The method is a quantitative extension of the front detection technique of EEW. Key Points Kirchhoff‐Fresnel integral method is applied for Earthquake Early Warning Real‐time prediction of ground motion without a hypocenter and magnitude The effects of source extent and multiple events are substantially included