From mountains to sound: modelling the sensitivity of Dungeness crab and Pacific oyster to land–sea interactions in Hood Canal, WA

Many diagnoses of declining marine species and habitats along US coasts point to upland and freshwater sources of imperilment. Yet, little work has examined how and whether activities on land affect marine resources. Similarly, the impacts of climate change on coastal systems are among the most certain; yet, few studies have explored how alternative management and climate scenarios will affect the delivery of diverse benefits to people from coasts. We estimated how Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) and Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) harvest in Hood Canal, WA, may change given predictions of land uses and effects of climate change. These two marine species are critical components of local commercial and recreational fisheries and thus represent key “ecosystem service” endpoints. We found that Dungeness crab harvest responds strongly to effects of climate change, as mediated by increased ocean temperature, whereas Pacific oyster harvest is more responsive to projected change in land-use/land-cover due to increased nutrient loading to the marine system. These changes vary spatially throughout Hood Canal. These results can be used as a heuristic framework to help decision-makers, planners, and other stakeholders in the region as they work to target conservation and restoration activities and plan for future growth in a changing climate.