Integrated conversion, financial, and risk modeling of cellulosic ethanol from woody and non-woody biomass via dilute acid pre-treatment

Dilute sulfuric acid pre‐treatment followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation is a technology widely studied as a potential pathway for conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to ethanol. Six feedstocks were evaluated in process and financial simulations. The woody feedstocks include natural hardwood, Eucalyptus, and loblolly pine while the non‐woody feedstocks include corn stover, switchgrass, and sweet sorghum. Based on experimental and literature data, ethanol yields for the non‐woody biomasses range from 315 to 328 liters per bone dry metric ton (L/BDt). Sweet sorghum that is pressed and washed to remove soluble sugars prior to dilute acid processing can have an ethanol yield of approximately 470 L/BDt. Natural hardwood and Eucalyptus produce ethanol yields of 336 and 309 L/BDt, respectively. When processing 700 000 bone dry metric tons per year, the non‐woody biomasses have lower minimum ethanol revenues to achieve a 12% internal rate of return (MER@12%) than the woody biomasses. The non‐wood MER@12% ranged from $0.70 to $080/liter while the MER@12% for natural hardwood and Eucalyptus was $0.84–$0.85/liter. The impact of feedstock composition variability on the net present value at 12% (NPV@12%) discount was estimated for corn stover, switchgrass, and loblolly pine. One standard deviation in the sample carbohydrate content for corn stover, switchgrass, and loblolly pine will impact the NPV@12% by approximately $40 M, $72 M, and $24 M, respectively. If recent historical cost and revenue variability continues for the life of the project the most attractive feedstock is squeezed sweet sorghum where the probability of achieving at least a 12% internal rate of return is 64%.