A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

•A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed.•Uncertainties of probability distributions and dual-interval values can be handled.•Solutions are generated for planning water-resources allocation under multiple uncertainties.•Different policies for crop-area targets over a multistage context are analyzed.•Results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for agricultural sustainability. In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.