dispersal of the coconut: did it float or was it carried to Panama?

Debate on the origin dispersal of Cocos nucifera has generally concluded that the palm has a Southeast Asia-Melanesian origin. The means of dispersal to the margins of its pre-industrial range is in more dispute. The literature on this question is reviewed. A stochastic simulation model of the winds, currents and islands of the Pacific Ocean tests the hypothesis of trans-Pacific drift dispersal. The model suggests that the probability of coconuts drifting unaided to the west coast of Panama while remaining viable is extremely low. Dispersal to Panama by humans seems more likely.