Climate-Induced Migration from Northern Africa to Europe: Security Challenges and Opportunities

Mass migration from Africa into Europe is identified as one of the many security threats associated with climate change. The scale of the issue is reflected in numerous intelligence assessments and policy documents, and remains the subject of scores of conferences, workshops, and papers. European Union security experts warn that climate-induced migration may increase conflict in transit and destination areas and that Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure. Some Europeans cite these and other migration security warnings as a reason to move migration control to areas outside Europe or pass more restrictive immigration policies. This article presents an overview of current and projected African migration trends and the associated security threats. Through this approach, the authors find that migration is primarily driven by sociocultural factors that not only include economics and the environment, but also social networks, cultural norms, and demography.