A multiperiod programming evaluation of brackishwater shrimp aquaculture development in Indonesia 1989/1990–1998/1999

Brackishwater shrimp aquaculture was economically evaluated to determine the best mix of aquaculture enterprises in Indonesia. Data were compiled for three categories of brackishwater shrimp aquaculture systems: Extensive, semi-intensive, and intensive, as well as for different farm sizes, small-scale (2 ha), medium-scale (5 ha), large-scale (10 ha) and extra large-scale (30 ha). These data were used to simulate the enterprise combination for the shrimp-producing regions in Indonesia. Model results showed that small-scale and medium-scale semi-intensive systems were the best strategies for shrimp aquaculture development in Indonesia. Extensive systems entered in solution only if there were skilled labor constraints. Risk analysis revealed risk-expected net present income trade-offs and declining risk with declining expected net present income for all regions.