Do medical student's surgical examination scores correlate with performance markers?

Abstract Background Some medical school training consists of oral examinations. Methods We conducted a 9-year review of third-year medical student examinations including oral examinations, National Board of Medical Examiners Surgery Subject Examination (SSE, ie, shelf), and United States Medical Licensing Examinations Step 1 and Step 2. Results Step 1 showed a moderate to strong association with Period 1 orals (Somers' D = .297, P < .001), but not Period 2 orals (Somers' D = .048, P = .053). Period 1 orals (percentage) had a strong association with SSE (Somers' D = .356, P < .001) and Step 2 (Somers' D = .368, P < .001). Period 2 orals (pass/fail) suggested a positive, but not statistically significant, association with SSE (Somers' D = .334, P = .085) and Step 2 (Somers' D = .370, P = .055). Step 1 shows a strong association with SSE (Somers' D = .490, P < .001). SSE showed a strong association with Step 2 (Somers' D = .506, P < .001). Conclusions Orals can be used to identify students who may have difficulty passing the SSE. Step 1 can be used to identify students at risk of poor performance on the SSE, and SSE can be used to identify students at risk for poor performance on Step 2.