National Health Spending in 2014 — Acceleration Delayed

Health economists anticipated a jump in health spending in 2014 due to expanded insurance coverage and recovery from the recession, but the growth rate has instead remained flat. What factors contributed to slower-than-expected growth, and what can we expect now? On the basis of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), it was widely reported in May that U.S. health care spending during the first 3 months of 2014 grew at an annualized rate of about 10% relative to the previous quarter. It appeared, at that point, that the 5-year run of sub-4% growth that began in 2009 was ending with a double-digit bang. However, 2 months later, revised BEA data showed a dramatic change: first-quarter health spending had actually fallen at a 0.9% annual rate. The pronounced difference between these two estimates is highly influenced by the method . . .