Transitions in Population Dynamics: Equilibria to Periodic Cycles to Aperiodic Cycles

1. We experimentally set adult mortality rates, mu a, in laboratory cultures of the flour beetle Tribolium at values predicted by a biologically based, nonlinear mathematical model to place the cultures in regions of different asymptotic dynamics. 2. Analyses of time-series residuals indicated that the stochastic stage-structured model described the data quite well. Using the model and maximum-likelihood parameter estimates, stability boundaries and bifurcation diagrams were calculated for two genetic strains. 3. The predicted transitions in dynamics were observed in the experimental cultures. The parameter estimates placed the control and mu a = 0.04 treatments in the region of stable equilibria. As adult mortality was increased, there was a transition in the dynamics. At mu a = 0.27 and 0.50 the populations were located in the two-cycle region. With mu a = 0.73 one genetic strain was close to a two-cycle boundary while the other strain underwent another transition and was in a region of equilibrium. In the mu a = 0.96 treatment both strains were close to the boundary at which a bifurcation to aperiodicities occurs; one strain was just outside this boundary, the other just inside the boundary. 4. The rigorous statistical verification of the predicted shifts in dynamical behaviour provides convincing evidence for the relevance of nonlinear mathematics in population biology.