A system to project injury and illness incidence during military operations

Modeling of medical resource requirements during military operations requires projections of disease and non-battle injury (DNBI) and wounded-in-action (WIA) rates. Historical data were extracted from unit diaries of infantry and support troops deployed during four previous combat engagements. A planning tool (FORECAS) was developed that uses the statistical distributions of DNBI and WIA incidence from previous operations to simulate injury and illness arrival rates under future scenarios. Output of the simulated data reflects the nuances of the empirical data.