relative importance of sexual and asexual reproduction in the spread of Spartina alterniflora using a spatially explicit individual-based model

This study investigates a spatially explicit, individual-based model for simulating the spread of invasive smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) in Yancheng coastal wetlands from 1995 to 2010. The model, which considers the landscape heterogeneity and changes detected by remote sensing, also reveals the relative importance of sexual and asexual reproduction in the spread by global sensitivity analysis. The model was verified as suitable for simulating the range expansion of S. alterniflora. The results show that: (1) although seedling recruitment is low, it significantly contributes to the range expansion of S. alterniflora. Removing sexual propagation greatly reduces the expansion rate. Rapid expansion requires both sexual and asexual reproduction; (2) in the global sensitivity analysis, the most significant affecters of S. alterniflora invasion were seed dispersal distance, adult survival rate and asexual recruitment survival rate. Sexual propagation contributes much more significantly to quick range expansion than asexual reproduction, but asexual reproduction is the main source of recruitment. Invasion control strategies should target a single reproduction mode. Here, limiting the germination and dispersal of seeds is suggested as a realistic strategy for controlling and managing invasion by this species.