Estimating the probability of river channel adjustment

River channels respond not only to natural external controls, and natural controls internal to individual drainage basins, but also to the influence of human activity. Although many site‐specific instances of change have been documented, the complexity of the process interactions means that very little is known about the general nature of different styles of adjustment, or their relative sensitivity to drainage basin controls. Data obtained from the Thames Basin, southeast England, are used in a probabilistic approach to differentiate between four styles of river channel adjustment and a variety of drainage basin characteristics. Adopting a probabilistic approach quantifies the degree of confidence attributable to any prediction of river channel adjustment while acknowledging that certainties are difficult to obtain in studies of the natural environment. This approach could thus allow environmental planning decisions to be made with a quantified degree of uncertainty. Four multivariate logistic regression models are described which use a combination of continuous and categorical variables to associate drainage basin characteristics with four styles of river channel adjustment derived from a reconnaissance evaluation survey. In comparison, it is shown that laterally migrating river channels are the most common ‘natural’ channel type in the Thames Basin, and their probability of occurrence rises to 71 per cent in sand/gravel environments. In channels regulated by low weirs, deposition is the most likely channel activity where gradients are lower than 0·0040, whilst above this threshold the majority of channels are morphologically inactive. In urban channels, many of which are also lined by concrete, the likelihood of obtaining a stable channel is mostly in excess of 80 per cent. In channels straightened during this century, deposition is most likely in gradients below 0·0050, whereas erosional enlargement is most probable above this value. In channels which were initially channelized prior to this century, deposition gives way to stability at a threshold gradient of 0·0080.