Inaccuracy of Federal Highway Administration's Licensed Driver Data: Implications on Young Driver Trends

Abstract Purpose The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) collects and publishes annual state-based counts of licensed drivers, which have been used to estimate per-driver crash rates and document a decline in young licensed drivers. The accuracy of these data has been questioned. Methods We compared the number of young licensed drivers as reported by the FHWA (2006–2012) with that generated directly from New Jersey (NJ) administrative licensing data. Census data were used to estimate the proportion of NJ adolescents who were licensed. Results FHWA data showed a decline in the proportion of licensed 17- to 20-year olds over the 7-year period (77%–63%), whereas analysis of NJ licensing data revealed a more stable trend (75%–74%). Conclusions We advise against use of FHWA licensing data for research purposes and encourage FHWA to work with state licensing agencies to review and enhance data collection and quality control procedures with the goal of ensuring the accuracy of licensing data.