Adapting to the impacts of global change on an artisanal coral reef fishery

When assessing future changes in fishing, research has focused on changes in the availability of the resource. Fishers' behaviour, however, also defines fishing activity, and is susceptible not only to changes in weather but also to changes in the economy, which can be faster and more ubiquitous. Using a novel modelling approach and spatially explicit predictors we identified the current drivers of artisanal fishing activity and predicted how it is likely to change in 2025 and 2035 under two climate and two economic scenarios. The model is effective at explaining the activity of fishers (AUC=0.84) and suggests that economic variables overwhelm the importance of climate variables in influencing the decisions of fishers in our case study area (Utila, Honduras). Although future changes in the overall incidence of fishing activity are modest, decreases in the number of accessible fishing grounds with projected increases in fuel prices will increase localised fishing effort depleting fish resources near the port. Compelling adaptation strategies in the area require the intervention of the market chain to make the sale price of fish more responsive to fuel price fluctuations and changes in fishing behaviour to improve fuel efficiency, including the revival of traditional ways of fishing. •Global change impacts fishers behaviour through changes in economy and climate.•Current fishing activity was modelled using a novel approach and spatial predictors.•Future activity was predicted for two climate and two economic scenarios.•In Utila economic drivers overwhelm climatic drivers in shaping fishing activity.•Predicted increases in activity near the port might deplete the resource under current management.