Validation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's solar flare forecasting look-up table and forecaster-issued probabilities

This paper provides an assessment of the operational solar flare look‐up table currently in use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) during solar cycle 23 (May 1996 – December 2008). To assess the value of human interaction, a validation of subjective flare probability forecasts was conducted and compared to the results obtained from the climatological look‐up table used at SWPC. Probabilistic flare forecasts are evaluated using the Brier Skill Score, then discretized and entered into contingency tables from which a variety of verification measures are calculated. The ultimate goal of this report is to provide an operational baseline, whereby the scores and statistics from this paper can be used as the basis for future evaluation of models presented to the operational community. Key Points Human interactive forecasting is best Look‐up table forecasting leads to high false alarms Forecaster experience has little effect on Brier Skill Score