Quantification of MODIS fire radiative power (FRP) measurement uncertainty for use in satellite-based active fire characterization and biomass burning estimation

Satellite measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) are increasingly used to estimate the contribution of biomass burning to local and global carbon budgets. Without an associated uncertainty, however, FRP‐based biomass burning estimates cannot be confidently compared across space and time, or against estimates derived from alternative methodologies. This work addresses this issue and quantifies the precision of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements of FRP by collecting duplicate, off‐nadir, overlapping observations of the same fires. Differences in the per‐pixel FRP measured near‐simultaneously in consecutive MODIS scans are approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation (ση) of 26.6%. Simulations demonstrate that this uncertainty decreases to less than ~5% (at ±1 ση) for aggregations larger than ~50 MODIS active fire pixels. Although FRP uncertainties limit the confidence in flux estimates on a per‐pixel basis, the sensitivity of biomass burning estimates to FRP uncertainties can be mitigated by conducting inventories at coarser spatiotemporal resolutions. Key Points Measurements of MODIS FRP have an uncertainty of 26.6% at the 1 sigma level Uncertainties in MODIS FRP are driven by the fire location within the PSF Uncertainties in MODIS FRP do not depend on scan angle