Directional influences on global temperature prediction

There is growing evidence that major climate modes are involved in determining decadal variability in global mean temperature. These modes represent major oceanic and atmospheric signals and on decadal scales their collective interplay leads to climate shifts manifesting themselves as regime changes in global temperature trend. Here we investigate whether the collective role of these modes is extended within a regime, i.e. to shorter time scales. We apply nonlinear prediction in order to assess directional influences in the climate system. We show evidence that input from four major climate modes from the Atlantic and Pacific improves the prediction of global temperature and thus these modes Granger cause global temperature. Moreover, we find that this causality is not a result of a particular mode dominating but a result of the nonlinear collective behavior in the network of the four modes. Key Points Co‐variability of major climate modes affects global temperature Direction of causal influences established Granger causality introduced for the first time in a climate variability study