Can a surgeon predict the risk of postoperative hypoparathyroidism during thyroid surgery? A prospective study on self-assessment by experts

Abstract Background Thyroid surgery can cause postoperative hypocalcemia (POH) and permanent hypoparathyroidism (PEH). Surgeons implicitly assess the risk and adapt their surgical strategy accordingly. Methods The outcome of this intraoperative decision-making process (the surgeons' ability to predict the risk of POH and PEH on a numerical rating scale and their actual incidence) was studied prospectively in 2,558 consecutive thyroid operations. Results POH and PEH occurred in 723 and 64 patients, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the surgeons' risk assessment score was an independent predictive factor for both complications ( P < .05). Surgeons' differed significantly ( P = .015) in their rates of POH but not of PEH ( P = .062). Six and 3 (of 9) surgeons correctly predicted an increased risk of PEH and POH (adjusted odds ratios 1.67 to 2.21 and 1.47 to 12.73), respectively. Conclusion The risk for hypoparathyroidism can be estimated, but surgeons differ substantially in this ability and in the extent to which this implicit knowledge is translated into lower complication rates.