Planning for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling-based approach

Highlights • Vaccination scenarios were modeled to forecast disease impact and cost consequences for national vaccination program planning. • Models predict that HPV vaccination in Mali will reduce cervical cancer burden by a factor roughly equal to vaccine coverage. • HPV prevalence is greater in rural areas than urban, so greatest impact on disease will be in programs target rural areas. • Vaccination coverage rates above 50% appear cost prohibitive. • Modeling can forecast impact, identify realistic coverage goals and serve as a valuable tool for HPV vaccination planning.