Probable maximum precipitation and climate change

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest accumulation of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for an area. Climate change effects on PMP are analyzed, in particular, maximization of moisture and persistent upward motion, using both climate model simulations and conceptual models of relevant meteorological systems. Climate model simulations indicate a substantial future increase in mean and maximum water vapor concentrations. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in maximum values for the continental United States are approximately 20%–30% by 2071–2100. The magnitudes of the maximum water vapor changes follow temperature changes with an approximate Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship. Model‐simulated changes in maximum vertical and horizontal winds are too small to offset water vapor changes. Thus, our conclusion is that the most scientifically sound projection is that PMP values will increase in the future due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture content and consequent higher levels of moisture transport into storms. Key Points Maximum atmospheric water vapor will increase in the futureEstimates of Probable Maximum Precipitation will increase commensuratelyDams and other similar structures are vulnerable to future climate change