Dual invasion analysis: a general model of novel ecological dynamics due to Bt product and resistant pests in wild settings

Transgenic Bt crops have been integrated as a central component of the agricultural policies of many nations across the globe due to their insecticidal properties. While focus on increased yield resulting from the use of Bt crops has overshadowed the concerns of pest populations developing resistance, resistance has been recently discovered in even highly managed fields. One issue that has received less attention is the resulting set of ecological dynamics from escaped Bt products into wild settings. I present a differential equation model of the ecological interaction between a wild plant–pest community and an invading Bt toxin-producing plant and the ensuing evolution of pest resistance. Key to this model investigation is the assumption of energy costs with both the production of Bt toxin by Bt plants and the resistance to Bt toxin exhibited by resistant pest individuals. Results show that persistence of the initial invading Bt plant population is possible through an intransitive loop dynamic. Furthermore, coexistence of wild-type plants and pests as well as Bt-producing plants and resistant pests is possible through the dynamics resultant from energy trade-offs.