The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials

Up until recently Peak Oil was a major discussion point crossing from academic research into mainstream journalism, yet it now attracts far less interest. This paper evaluates the reasons for this and on-going relevance of Peak Oil, considering variations in predictive dates for the phenomenon suppo...

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Veröffentlicht in:Energy policy 2014-01, Vol.64, p.93-101
1. Verfasser: Chapman, Ian
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Up until recently Peak Oil was a major discussion point crossing from academic research into mainstream journalism, yet it now attracts far less interest. This paper evaluates the reasons for this and on-going relevance of Peak Oil, considering variations in predictive dates for the phenomenon supported by technological, economic and political issues. Using data from agencies, the validity of each position is assessed looking at reserves, industrial developments and alternative fuels. The complicating issue of demand is also considered. The conclusions are that, supported by commercial interests, an unsubstantiated belief in market and technical solutions, and a narrow paradigmatic focus, critics of Peak Oil theory have used unreliable reserve data, optimistic assumptions about utilisation of unconventional supplies and unrealistic predictions for alternative energy production to discredit the evidence that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil has arrived, diverting discussion from what should be a serious topic for energy policy: how we respond to decreasing supplies of one of our most important energy sources. •Key advocates/opponents of Peak Oil reveal their biases.•Reserve calculation methods are considered, showing flaws.•Non-conventional oils’ viability is critiqued and found wanting.•Alternative fuels are found to be unsuitable substitutes for oil.•Demand increases add to the potential for fuel shortages.
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.010