The challenge of predicting temperature effects on short-term predator–prey dynamics

Understanding how interacting species respond to changing temperatures is complicated because both inter- and intraspecific processes can be temperature-dependent, and because the dynamics of interest often occur over short time scales. While efforts to document and integrate inter- and intraspecific effects are ongoing, few broad conclusions have emerged. Here, we use a simple structured predator–prey model to explore whether some such conclusions can be reached with incomplete knowledge about initial population sizes or about how temperature alters predation rates. We find that, despite strong sensitivity of quantitative predictions to the model’s details, qualitative predictions for how predator–prey communities respond to temperature may still be possible. As a case study, we ask whether biological control of the herbivorous insect pea aphid will be strengthened or weakened by increasing temperatures. Our empirically derived parameter estimates suggest biological control will be strengthened, but we caution that this result is not inevitable given what we currently know about the effects of temperature in this system. Our work highlights the complex interaction between inter- and intraspecific effects of temperature in ecological communities.