Analysis and Establishment Methods of Conflict Scenario Space in Strategy Decision-making

Aiming at the analysis and establishment of conflict scenario space in strategic decision, the paper analyzes the limitation of the present research, and defines the new method which combines Bayesian and morphological analysis according to the basic logic of establishing scenario space, and designs a scenarios filter methods based on compatibility values and modified goal programming. The new method can assist military specialist by analyzing the hiberarchy and cayse-and-effect relationships of the factors composing of scenario space, and how to select the reasonable and representative scenarios from scenario space.