Nomogram to predict ongoing pregnancy using age of women and serum biomarkers after in vitro fertilization cycles

Abstract Objective To develop a nomogram for prediction of ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF)-embryo transfer (ET) using age of women and serum biomarkers. Study design Prospective longitudinal study of 103 patients undergoing IVF-ET at a university-based hospital. Serum HCG and progesterone levels were measured at the time of the pregnancy test (14 days after oocyte retrieval) and pregnancy outcomes were followed. The main outcome was ongoing pregnancy prediction. Results For the prediction of ongoing pregnancy, a combination of serum HCG, progesterone and age of the woman shows the best predictive accuracy (AUC 0.912 [95% CI 0.815–1.000], sensitivity 89.3%, specificity 80.0%, positive predictive value 89.3%, negative predictive value 80.0%). On the basis of these variables, we developed a nomogram to predict ongoing pregnancy. Conclusion A nomogram could help to predict ongoing pregnancy after IVF-ET. The nomogram needs further validation to improve individualized prediction of ongoing pregnancy.